The Reductionist

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Uncertainty Bites.

Forget the best and worst, for my inflation-shrunken dollar it’s the liverwurst of times: a queasy sandwich made with bread slices of dubious provenance surrounding cardiologist-upsetting mystery meat slathered with a suspect white substance scooped from a bottle embellished by strange gray spots, greasy fingerprints, and a crusty splash of old yellow mustard.

That’s because the whole lot of us, especially in advertising, are chugging Pepto by the SKU, anticipating that first recessionary bite. So much so that last weekend the UK’s Institute of Practitioners of Advertising—the fittingly monikered IPA—took out this ad: 

Far be it for me to differ with people who speak the language like they invented it, but you do have to wonder if JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is right, and the odds are 20 to 30% for every outcome between nothing burger and a much deeper downturn. If so, maybe the IPA was a shade early.

Then again, with some sector pullbacks already raising their ugly heads, they might have a timely point. Mr. Dimon may have downgraded his June forecast of “economic hurricane” to “storm clouds,” but history shows that it doesn’t take much of a breeze to evaporate support for marketing and its allied disciplines.

The best advice for the moment: keep calm and advertise on. And I say that with the benefit of considerable experience: Brainchild was born on the economic horns of the dotcom collapse and 9/11. If the signs, augurs, and portents prove out, this will be the 3rd big contraction we’ve dealt with along the way.

Survival in these conditions is a matter of playing offense, not defense. Eliminating anything inefficient. Prioritizing what’s difference-making, from audience selection to resource allocation. Focusing brand messaging on perceptions of worth, even more than value. Streamlining production in ways that not only let you stay in the game, but come out better on the other side.

Because here’s the other thing: with high levels of employment, this is going to be an economic sandwich unlike any other.  If we’re thoughtful about it, and use this period of uncertainty to do some serious thinking about the what ifs, we just might discover there’s an alternative word for “recession” in circumstances like these:

Opportunity.