Hella lot of bruiting about crypto last weekend (www.protocol.com/bulletins/coinbase-crypto-crash-ad), much of it provoked by a new spot from Coinbase. While the ad attempts a sharp tap on the irony bone, the real twist is this: it ran on TV, a medium whose demise has been reported every six months, mas o menos, since 2001. In the comparative doom-forecasting dead pool, crypto’s hardly been nicked.

That said, you’ve got to admit that Coinbase does know how to get people wound up. Advertising scorekeepers will recall their “break the internet” QR code spot on the last Super Bowl; promptly followed by massive industry flamethrowing when their CEO claimed “no agency could have come up with this ad.” 

Turns out, one had, and even included the idea in a pitch deck presented to Coinbase. So, okay, old news.

New news for said CEO:  the “series of quotes on art cards” device used in this spot has been checked out of the creative library so often, you don’t need to blow off the dust. And the message? For my stablecoin, it’s essentially a less clever reprise of the “Don’t be like Larry” Super Bowl spot for crypto-competitor FTX—100% FOMO and 100% aimed what economists call  the “greater fool.”

The big difference is that Larry David is a 100% funny fool because he’s Larry David. Plus, they spent serious bucks in producing something matched to the scale of the event.

But that really isn’t what gets me circling the drain around Coinbase’s return to the airwaves. Instead, the whole kerfuffle puts me in mind of a question that seems very close to the bone in these bleak-and-trending-bleaker times—is the crypto crash a case of history rhyming or repeating?

It’s January 30, 2000, and we’re watching a Rams-on-top Super Bowl dripping with dotcom excess. While the signs and portents are painfully clear, the world isn’t ready to declare the “irrational exuberance” over, far from it.  That will have to wait a whole month and a few days for the markets to conclude, in a stunning demonstration of herd mentality, that the promised “hockey stick” curve of eyeballs attracted to screens wasn’t happening fast enough.

Pop goes the bubble.

Writing for the British creative magazine Shots the next year, I observed that if investors had just held their water for a scant 6 months, every single “failed” metric would not only have reached, but exceeded, the consensus standard for success. Pity.

Now, leap ahead 22 years and what gives?  A tech-heavy NFL apex game dubbed “the Crypto Bowl.” Another Rams team, again irritating the nation, 213 area code excepted, by persisting in winning. And, yes, an easily predictable, and not just in hindsight, trillion-dollar cliff just down the primrose lane.

Once more with feeling: is this historical rhyme, where magically untethered valuations and shocking volatility means we’re in uncharted territory?  Or is it a repeat of “what goes down, must rebound,” so why not plan on the phoenix exiting the ashes?

That’s all fodder for the economists, and they’re welcome to it.  For immediate purposes, here’s the thing that gnaws. The Coinbase spot is, unarguably, a doubling down on the promise of crypto with its transparent risks.  And in the face of current conditions, you have to wonder about whether or not it stretches the permissible limits for advertising  that deliberately capitalizes on gullibility.

After all, the aforementioned “greater fool theory” says that it’s okay to buy something in hopes there will be a “greater fool” to take it off your hands.  And that works just fine, until it doesn’t. 

Mr. Ponzi, your table is now ready for your guests. 

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